!!! จับตาพายุลูกใหม่ ที่กำลังก่อตัว ณ ขณะนี้ !!!

ณ วันที่ 5/9/55 ตอนนี้ปริมาณน้ำในเขื่อนกิ่วลม จ. ลำปาง 72 แล้วนะค่ะ เทียบกับปีที่แล้ว 5/9/54 แค่ 42
อีกไม่นานก็คงจะลงไปสมทบที่เขื่อนภูมิพล
ถ้าเดือนนี้โชคดีไม่มีพายุเข้า ก็น่าเบาใจ แต่ถ้ามีพายุเข้าตรง ๆ ก็น่าระวังเลยค่ะ ประกอบกับ ร่องมรสุมยาวอย่างนี้ น่าหวาดเสียวน้ำท่วม

 

ปีนี้ดีกว่าปีที่แล้วเยอะเลย

 

ABPW10 PGTW 100600MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/100600Z-110600ZSEP2012//RMKS/

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.0N 137.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.7N 136.3E, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED YET PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WHICH IS OVER THE WESTERN SEMI CIRCLE OF A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC). A 100110Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS DEPICTS 05-10 KNOT WINDS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LLCC AND VERY DISORGANIZED WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN SEMI CIRCLE. OBSERVATIONS FROM PALAU AND YAP HAVE REMAINED NEAR 1007 MB AND WINDS HAVE BECOME VARIABLE AND WEAKER AROUND 05-10 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE OVER THE AREA WITH MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACTING ON THE SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE (29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO THE LACK OF CONSOLIDATION BUT A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 30.6N 148.3E, APPROXIMATELY 530 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT. A 092323Z METOP-A IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED LLCC WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. A 092322Z ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES A SMALL, DEVELOPING LLCC WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS AND ISOLATED 20-25 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED NORTH OF THE CENTER; THESE STRONGER WINDS HAVE NOT YET WRAPPED INTO THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND IS UNDER MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH IS HINDERING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK, BROAD, EXPOSED CIRCULATION EVIDENT TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 26.6N 144.8E. BASED ON THE DEFINED CIRCULATION EVIDENT ON THE RECENT ASCAT IMAGE, MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE (27-29 DEGREES CELSIUS) FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
//NNNN
</PRE>

 

ตอนนี้เป็นดีเปสชั่นแล้ว

 

<!--Begin @Core index entry hook--><!--End @Core index entry hook--><CSS3-CONTAINER style="Z-INDEX: -1; POSITION: absolute; DIRECTION: ltr; TOP: 0px; LEFT: 0px"><BACKGROUND style="POSITION: absolute; TOP: 0px; LEFT: 0px"><GROUP1><?xml:namespace prefix = css3vml ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml" /><css3vml:shape style="POSITION: absolute; WIDTH: 608px; HEIGHT: 2075px; TOP: 0px; BEHAVIOR: url(#default#VML); LEFT: 0px" coordsize = "1216,4150" coordorigin = "1,1" fillcolor = "white" stroked = "f" path = " m0,8 qy8,0 l1208,0 qx1216,8 l1216,4142 qy1208,4150 l8,4150 qx0,4142 x e"><css3vml:fill></css3vml:fill></css3vml:shape></GROUP1></BACKGROUND><BORDER style="POSITION: absolute; TOP: 0px; LEFT: 0px"><css3vml:shape style="POSITION: absolute; WIDTH: 608px; HEIGHT: 2075px; TOP: 0px; BEHAVIOR: url(#default#VML); LEFT: 0px" coordsize = "1216,4150" coordorigin = "1,1" filled = "f" stroked = "t" strokecolor = "#ccc" strokeweight = ".75pt" path = " m1,8 qy8,1 l1208,1 qx1215,8 l1215,4142 qy1208,4149 l8,4149 qx1,4142 x e"><css3vml:stroke></css3vml:stroke><css3vml:stroke></css3vml:stroke></css3vml:shape></BORDER></CSS3-CONTAINER>
<!--Begin @Core index loop hook--><CSS3-CONTAINER style="Z-INDEX: -1; POSITION: absolute; DIRECTION: ltr; TOP: 1px; LEFT: 557px"><BACKGROUND style="POSITION: absolute; TOP: 0px; LEFT: 0px"><GROUP1><css3vml:shape style="POSITION: absolute; WIDTH: 51px; HEIGHT: 47px; TOP: 0px; BEHAVIOR: url(#default#VML); LEFT: 0px" coordsize = "102,94" coordorigin = "1,1" fillcolor = "#dedede" stroked = "f" path = " m0,0 qy0,0 l94,0 qx102,8 l102,94 qy102,94 l8,94 qx0,86 x e"><css3vml:fill></css3vml:fill></css3vml:shape></GROUP1></BACKGROUND><BORDER style="POSITION: absolute; TOP: 0px; LEFT: 0px"><css3vml:shape style="POSITION: absolute; WIDTH: 51px; HEIGHT: 47px; TOP: 0px; BEHAVIOR: url(#default#VML); LEFT: 0px" coordsize = "102,94" coordorigin = "1,1" filled = "t" fillcolor = "#ccc" stroked = "f" path = " m102,92 l8,92 ae8,86,6,6,-5898150,-2949075 ae8,86,8,8,-8847225,2949075 l102,94 e"><css3vml:fill></css3vml:fill></css3vml:shape><css3vml:shape style="POSITION: absolute; WIDTH: 51px; HEIGHT: 47px; TOP: 0px; BEHAVIOR: url(#default#VML); LEFT: 0px" coordsize = "102,94" coordorigin = "1,1" filled = "t" fillcolor = "#ccc" stroked = "f" path = " al8,86,6,6,-8847225,-2949075 l2,0,0,0,0,86 ae8,86,8,8,-11796300,2949075 e"><css3vml:fill></css3vml:fill></css3vml:shape></BORDER></CSS3-CONTAINER><!--begin format icon-->
<!--end format-icon-->Todays Tropical Weather Outlook | Monday, 10 September 2012

<!--Call @Core Meta hook-->Published on September 10, 2012 by Clark in Daily Updates, General Weather Updates, Tropical Outlook, Tropicals
Today's Daily Tropical Weather Outlook, showing the significant development of 98W.


EXISTING SYSTEMS

• A Monsoon trough (ITCZ) extends west to starting in the South China Sea from a JMA LPA located West of Luzon at 14°N 113°E, across the Philippines to Yap Island… through a Invest LPA 98W located at 7.7°N 136.3°E, about 200 km ENE of Palau Island… trough ends at the Equator, near 162°E.
• Invest 98W has been upgraded into a <30kt Tropical Depression by the JMA this morning.
• Another Suspect area/Invest 99W is located SE of Tokyo, Japan at 30°N 148.5°E… This system is rated Medium by the JTWC.
• An Mid-Latitude Low is pushing across the Korean Peninsula.
• The Subtropical ridge is centered East of Japan, moving East. Meanwhile, another Subtropical ridge is starting to build from Mainland China. The two ridges are separated (Ridge-Axis) at Western Japan.

MODEL FORECASTS

• Models have depicted a Tropical Cyclone to form near Yap Island in the Carolines within the next 24-48 hours.
• The LPA West of Luzon is also being forecast to form into something significant by midweek.

CURRENT ENVIRONMENT
LPA 98W is in a favorable area of development… wind shear of 5-10 kts and decreasing, High sea surface temperatures. An area of increasing vorticity is also found near Yap, and is attributed to 98W.
OUTLOOK
Tropical Cyclone formation is expected within the week. The MJO signal has increased and is now in the Southeast Asian region, and could promote higher moisture levels.

 

D ลูกนี้จะเลี้ยวขึ้นบนไม่โดนเราอีกหรือเปล่า

 

ปีที่แล้วไห่ถาง มาวันที่ 27 กันยายน ปีนี้ก็ต้องจับตามองกันต่อไป ขออย่าให้มีเลย
แค่ไม่มีพายุน้ำก็ท่วมแล้ว

ภัยพายุไห่ถางมีฝนตกหนักระวังน้ำท่วมฉับพลัน27 กันยายน 2011, 10:04 น.

 

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98W

 

เหตุการณ์วันนี้

• เวปภัยพิบัติดอทคอมรายงานว่า เมื่อ04:00 น. หย่อมความกดอากาศต่ำกำลังแรงแถบฟิลิปปินส์ กลายสภาพเป็นพายุดีเปรสชัน 17W ทิศทางมุ่งหน้าเกาะโอกินาวาของญี่ปุ่น
• 
• รอดไปอีกหนึ่ง ดร.เสรี ศุภฯ เคยรายงานไว้ว่าทุกปีเราจะโดนประมาณ 4 ลูกใน 40 ลูกที่เกิดในแปซิฟิคก็ต้องคอยดูกันต่อไป

 

11 September 2012

พายุดีเปรสชั่น 17W กำลังพัฒนาเป็นพายุโซนร้อน 'ซานปา หรือซันปา (Sanba)' ทิศทางมุ่งหน้าเกาะโอกินาวาของญี่ปุ่น

ลม: 35 MPH — Location: 9.4N 134.3E — Movement: NNW ​

​

Five Day Forecast Map
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

B5 - War Room Falkman